PennDesign Central Florida Rollout
Finding an Alternative Future

"Sprawl is trying to teach us something, that the current patterns are neither attractive nor efficient." —Professor Jonathan Barnett, University of Pennsylvania

Ready or Not, Here They Come

So you think Central Florida is a great place to live, work and play?
Evidently you are not alone. While the United States is expected to grow at a rate of 47% through 2050, the anticipated growth rate for the seven-county Central Florida region is 136%.

But, what exactly does that mean for our region?
It means that an additional four million people will be calling Central Florida home by 2050. That will make our region larger than all but four current metropolitan areas in the nation (Chicago, New York, Washington DC and Los Angeles) with more than 7.2 million people.

That population increase offers a variety of opportunities and challenges for the region. The economic vitality created by the addition of a large number of talented professionals has the potential to make Central Florida a leader in the global economy of the 21st century. At the same time, having four million additional people using the land, water, roads, parks, schools and other resources necessitates a strategy for growth that will ensure the positive quality of life that makes living in the region attractive.

Getting an Outside Perspective

To help get a base understanding of what this influx of people will look like, myregion.org, the Metropolitan Center for Regional Studies at UCF, The Central Florida Metropolitan Planning Organization Alliance, the Metro Orlando Home Builders Association and the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council sought the expert opinion of an outside organization that could objectively look at the future and offer scenarios of how the region will grow based on current trends and then also offer some possible alternatives.

The Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of Pennsylvania is internationally recognized as one of the leading graduate programs in the field. Under the direction of Professor Jonathan Barnett, the students spent the entire semester studying Central Florida and what the addition of four million people to the region could mean. They unveiled their findings to more than 200 interested citizens during a presentation at Leu Gardens on May 25.

What Does Our Future Hold?

The PennDesign study did not look at the likely economic benefits created through the addition of four million people to the region. Instead, it concentrated specifically on what the region would look like from a land development standpoint.

The study used the current land development trend of building almost exclusively single family houses, connected by additional roads, and created a potential future based on this pattern. If nothing changes in our current land trends, residents would spend significantly more time in traffic, whether traveling to work or even just to spend the day at the beach or one of the other recreational or entertainment options in the region.

Additionally, if current trends prevail water will no longer be plentiful, or inexpensive, and almost every developable acre within the region will be used either for housing, roads or business. As a snapshot:

  • There are currently 850,000 developed acres within Central Florida.
  • Based on current trends, by 2050 an additional 1,163,000 acres will be developed.
  • Percentage of developed land within the region will increase from the current 16% to 37%.
  • According to projections by the PennDesign study, it will cost more than $116.7 billion for streets and utilities alone to accommodate the population growth.

Is There An Alternative?

While the current growth pattern would lead to a future of endless traffic, roads and houses, that future is not set in stone.

According to the PennDesign study, there are alternatives that can reduce the sprawl and increase the productivity of acreage within the region. The recommended scenario is based on a more balanced planning approach that conserves environmentally sensitive lands while also creating higher density residential areas around light and high-speed rail. Specifically:

  • the scenario calls for the development of only 420,000 acres, with an additional 329,000 redeveloped or infilled at higher densities.
  • 75% of the developed land would be at the same low density as currently exists. Town houses and low-rise apartments would create most of the needed density increase.
  • An additional 724,429 acres of conservation lands would be purchased to help preserve the current natural habitats within the region.

Including costs for urbanization, revitalization, environmental land acquisition and transportation, the total cost of the alternative model comes to $90.4 billion, a savings of $26.3 billion as compared to the current trend projection.

A Guide For What Is Possible

While the PennDesign Study is not necessarily a plan for the seven-county region, it is an illustration of what the future can look like if all stakeholders within the region come together to explore the many possibilities to ensure that the region continues to be the place where people desire to live, work and play.

What's Next?

June-October 2005 - Leadership Presentations
October 26, 2005 - Regional Vision for Alternative Futures (MARK YOUR CALENDAR!!)
January - November 2006 - Community Sessions (receiving input and feedback)
November - December 2006 -Community Input Presentations